Saturday, October 17, 2009

WAKE FOREST   at  CLEMSON

12:00 Eastern

This week in the ACC Wake Forest travels to play Clemson. It's the Deamon Deacons

ACC number 2 offense against the ACC's number 3 Tiger's defense.

Clemson is 2-3 so far this season, and only 1-3 in their past 4 games.

They're playing a Wake team that's 4-2 overall and 4-1 the past 5.

Clemson is coming off a well needed bye week, as they went into it off 2 losses to Tcu at

home and Maryland on the road.  They're playing today's game with revenge from last

year, where they lost to Wake on the road 12-7.  In the past 15 meetings between these 2,

Clemson is 11-4 SU. And, they are 6-1 SU the past 7, and 4-0 the past 4 when playing

Wake at home. They are 3-0 SU against Wake when playing with revenge, and they

have not lost to them in back to back seasons in 15 years.

Their defense is 3rd in the ACC behind N.Carolina and VaTech giving up

just under 18 points per game.   Their overall defense is ranked 23rd in the country.

Their pass defense is ranked 8th in the country. Clemson does well when they have an

extra week to prepare. They are 4-0 SU & ATS after a week off when they lost the game

prior to their bye week. Coach Groh for Wake is only 1-9 ATS in road games following a

game where they outgained their previous opponent by 125 or more yards.

Clemson has a tough ACC opponent up next week with Miami, so they can't let this one

get by them, or their contention for the ACC race could be over early this year.

Wake is coming off back to back home wins over NC State 2 weeks ago and last week

over Maryland in their Homecoming game. This is only their 2nd road game of the

season. Wake is only 1-8 ATS the past 9 playing conference games on the road.

Clemson has already played 2 ranked teams, as they lost to

Georgia Tech by 3 and Tcu by 4.  Wake hasn't had to face any type of stiff defenses yet,

until today.

Clemson's defense will keep Wake in check,

while their offense shows benefits from the extra week to prepare.

PREDICTION:

CLEMSON  35    -    W.FOREST  17

WON   38-3

Saturday, October 24, 2009

ARKANSAS  at  MISSISSIPPI

12:20 Eastern

This week in the SEC we have a contest that has the top passing attack of Arkansas going against

the top passing defense of Ole Miss, and it is an important game for various reasons!

First of all, it is our Lock of the Year.  But for the coach of the Rebels, it is Houston Nutt going

against the team where he was the head coach for a decade. Coach Nutt has been the winning coach

in 7 of the past 8 meetings between these 2 schools.

After guiding Arkansas to three SEC Western Division titles and 8 bowl berths in his decade in

Fayetteville, Nutt immediately reversed the Rebels' fortunes and became just the 5th Ole Miss

coach to guide the Rebels to a bowl in his first season. Including his decade of success at

Arkansas, Nutt has guided his teams to 9 bowl berths in the past 11 seasons, most of any SEC

Western Division coach during this span. Nutt's squads recorded 8 or more wins in 7 of those

11 campaigns and 9 or more victories in 7 of those seasons in the SEC. Last year was his first

chance to beat his old team, and he did so on the road by 2 points. He now gets to entertain them in

his new surroundings at Ole Miss.  Because he came to coach Mississippi just 2 years ago,

he is very familiar with Arkansas' current players, as he recruited a lot of them.

Arkansas QB Mallett who is having an outstanding season was one of those recruits he's familiar

with, as he coached him even in their junior camps. Coach Nutt knows how talented this QB is and

even was as a youngster. But let's get on to the meat of the reasons why we have this play rated

so high.  In one word - DEFENSE!  Ole Miss is probably one of the best kept secrets defensively in

the country! They are not only one of the best defenses in their conference, but also one of the best

in the country! The defensive line is certainly doing it's share, as they are second in the SEC in

sacks with 17. You can look at all categories statistically when talking about defenses

and offenses, but the most important one is points allowed to their opponents.

While Ole Miss is averaging scoring 30 points per game, they are averaging giving up only 13

points per game.  They have given up ONLY 6 TOUCHDOWNS so far this season,

and only 2 of those 6 through the air! Today's opponent Arkansas has given up 19 Touchdowns so

far this year. Miss has scored 24 TD's and given up only 6, while Arkansas has scored 26 TD's

and given up 19. The 6 TD's they've given up is only 2nd to Florida's 4 in the SEC, and they are tied

for 2nd in the country with Penn St who has also given up only 6. But, it gets even better!  Their

defense is also superb on 3rd down conversions. Their opponents have only converted on 3rd down

22 of 94 attempts for only 23% of the time. This is the best in the SEC, as Florida is second

giving up a first down 24% of the time. And, today's opponent is giving up first downs at the rate of

35% ( 30 of 86 ) on 3rd down attempts. On the offensive side, Ole Miss is converting on 3rd down

38% of the time, while Arkansas' conversion rate is only 26%.

Ole Miss holds the Number 1 spot in another very important defensive category!

They have given up only 5 TD's on the season to teams once they are in the red zone. Only 5 times

out of 25 attempts for a rate of 25%. Arkansas has given up 7 TD's out of 21 for 33% of the time.

On offense, Miss scored 16 TD's out of 20 trips to the red zone for 80%, while Arkansas scored

15 out of 24 attempts for 63%. Ole Miss has the Number 1 defense in 3rd down conversion rate

and red zone TD's allowed,  and, They are Number 1 on offense when scoring TD's from the red

zone. Last week while Arkansas was putting up the fight of their lives against Florida to lose in a

close game by only 3 with the help of some questionable calls by officials, Ole Miss was getting

their offense in gear against UAB, as they won 48-13. They rebounded nicely after losing the

previous week at home to Alabama 22-3. For Arkansas this is the 6th game of what's been a

grueling schedule. They have had to play in the past 5 weeks... Georgia at home, Alabama on the

road, Texas A&M on the road, Auburn at home, and last week Florida on the road.

Arkansas' last four opponents were undefeated at the time they squared off against the

Razorbacks. They went 2-3 overall in that stretch and 1-3 in conference games.

It has been brutal for them, and they now must go up against probably the best defense in the SEC

and the country! Going back to last year where the Rebels won their last 5 games of the season

and gave up only 54 points in those final 5 contests, the Rebels are averaging giving up

only 12 points per game the past 11 games.

While The Ole Miss Defense Has Been Solid All Season, Their Offense Got

Back On Track Last Week. Today We Look For Their Best Effort Of The

Season! Today We Have The Rebels For Our Lock Of The Year!

PREDICTION:

MISSISSIPPI  34   -    ARKANSAS  16

WON   30-17